Friday, July 13, 2012

Bud Selig Wants to Do WHAT to the Home Run Derby?

The answer, if you've been paying attention the past few days to the furor sparked by Robbie Cano's being booed viciously by the Kansas City partisans during the Derby on Monday, is possibly institute a mandate that says the host team must have a representative in the event.

Okay, okay, so Selig isn't all of a sudden off on a wild crusade to change the rules of the Derby yet again - he merely said that Major League Baseball would "talk about this [potential rule change]."

The mere fact that there would be any kind of discussion on this, however, is simply ludicrous.

Baseball - or at least the administration of the current head honchos - has had a history of reflexively making impactful yet impulsive knee-jerk decisions in response to P.R. disasters or to exploit whatever advantage they may have somehow gained. There are two notable examples of this. The foolish "This Time It Counts" facade that the All-Star Game is now played under after the 7-7 debacle in Milwaukee in 2002 (although, as Tom Verducci very interestingly points out, Fox may have started discussions on this a couple years prior as a way to reverse declining ratings. I had never heard that before, and it makes you wonder how many fingerprints TV networks leave in places you would never think to look in the sports world. I had a civics teacher tell me once - perhaps echoing Deep Throat in All The President's Men (the sequence starts at 3:20) - to just always follow the money. I've realized over the years she was more right than I thought at the time.). The second is the move to a second wild card - which, again, had admittedly been kicked around for a while beforehand - immediately after the embarrassingly great success of Game 162 last season. Well, except for the Red Sox of course, and the Braves as well. Now MLB has dug itself into a precarious position as far as postseason scheduling goes for this year, which was originally scheduled with one wild card in mind.  

So it should perhaps come as no surprise that Selig and company would be willing to do something so blindingly short-sighted as to respond to a chorus of boos by instituting an unnecessary mandate. Granted, it would have been great for Royals fans to see their hometown boy, Billy Butler, in the Derby. Lord knows they need something to cheer for until their pitching prospects catch up with their young offensive talent. But I'm sorry. The Derby is not solely for the hometown fans. It's for the rest of the country too, and I wholeheartedly supported the pick of eventual winner Prince Fielder over Butler, even though Butler has one more home run (16 to 15) at the Break. Why? Because Prince is a home run hitter and puts on an awesome show. Butler is a fantastic hitter, but he's never cracked more than 21 homers in a season.

Now don't get me wrong. If a hometown player deserves to be there, he should absolutely be there. If he gets snubbed, the captain/whoever is doing the picking deserves some tough love (although definitely not to the extent Cano - and unfortunately, his family - received). We saw this happen last year in Phoenix too, when Arizona's own Justin Upton was ignored by Fielder in favor of *presumably* either Rickie Weeks or Matt Holliday. Weeks had 17 at the break, Upton 15, and Holliday 14. Holliday, okay, I'll buy an argument for Matt here. The man is as strong as an ox, has name recognition, and at least hadn't embarassed himself in the previous two derbies, so he gets a pass. Weeks in favor of Upton, however, was unforgivable in the context of the Derby being in Phoenix and Justin being the hometown pick. Upton may have had two fewer home runs, but he sure is a more exciting talent than Weeks (proof - Upton, slugging a massively disappointing .401 heading into the second half, is still toting a number 58 points higher than Weeks) and hits the ball a ton. Want proof? Okay, here's one. And another. And, for good measure, another. Sorry Carp. Side note - I've stood where that last ball landed. Holy cow is that a long way from home plate. Justin destroyed that pitch.

So Upton's snub was a bad one. Butler's wasn't. The point is, the captains or whoever's picking the Derby squads shouldn't be forced to pick somebody just by virtue of the All-Star Game being in their home ballpark. The players that are picked should be the ones that are the most deserving to be there. Or at least, the most deserving ones that agree to participate.

But because I'm curious, because you should learn something from reading these instead of just my opinions, and because the Derby is all for fun and games anyways, I decided to look back at the last 10 Derbies including this year and see if anybody from the home team got unfairly snubbed in favor of someone else. Or, conversely, if somebody from the home team participated that maybe didn't deserve to. And what I found wasn't quite what I was expecting.

2003, U.S. Cellular Field, Chicago - Frank Thomas, one of the greatest sluggers of all time, had 20 homers at the break, good for 11th in the league. Mixed with his pedigree, this seems like enough incentive to get the hometown guy in. Except that of the 4 AL players in the Derby, none had fewer than 22 - and that was Garrett Anderson, who ended up winning. Anderson was the one guy I might have swapped out in favor of The Big Hurt, but the win mitigates that. So overall, this is not a snub. Also, Thomas wasn't even an All-Star that year...so that doesn't exactly help his case.

2004, Minute Maid Park, Houston - Lance Berkman got the hometown discount in order to participate, as he was only 18th in the league at the time with 16 bombs. But you know who else participated with only 16 homers? Sammy Sosa. So it's not as if Berkman was a complete albatross. Plus, he finished second for good measure. Overall, a deserving choice.

2005, Comerica Park, Detroit - In what may have been the screwiest Derby of all time, Ivan Rodriguez represented the Tigers with a grand total of 6 home runs. You know what place that tied him for in the AL? 81st, behind noted power threat The O-Dog aka Orlando Hudson. However, Pudge found himself in the Derby because the choice was made that year to have contestants represent their home countries, which for the Tigers catcher was Puerto Rico. This is why the immortal Hee-Seop Choi goes down in history as a Home Run Derby participant. In any event, even though Pudge finished second, I have to throw this one out because of the weird format.

2006, PNC Park, Pittsburgh - Poor Jason Bay. Toils in obscurity in Pittsburgh as a good player, has 1 1/2 great seasons in Boston, and then, just when he's ready to further cash in on his star status, pulls an incredible disappearing act with the Mets. Anyway, in '06, the Canadian had 21 homers at the break, which ranked him 9th in the NL. He was passed over in favor of David Wright and Miguel Cabrera, who had 20 and 15 home runs, respectively. However, both of those guys are great hitters and they finished 2-3 in that year's event. Therefore, this one is a wash and could go either way.

2007, AT&T Park, San Francisco - Barry Bonds was 7th in the NL with 17 homers, but didn't participate in the Derby. Who knows if he was passed over or simply refused to do it on account of being a spiteful dude - although Bonds had participated in three Derbies since 2001, so it wasn't as if he was completely opposed to the idea. Either way, he didn't participate, and Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday (16 and 15, respectively) did and tied for third. However, I'm going to declare this a snub, on account of two things. 1) It was the one place Bonds would be cheered. 2) Come on. It's Barry Bonds. I don't care if he took steroids...well I do. But for the Home Run Derby in what would be his final season, in his home park? Seems appropriate, or at least it would have at the time.

2008, Yankee Stadium, New York - Speaking of steroids, two admitted users - Jason Giambi and Alex Rodriguez - both had 19 to tie for 5th in the AL at the break in '08. Neither participated, instead being ignored in favor of Evan Longoria (16) and Justin Morneau (14). Longoria finished last, while Morneau pulled a Matt Kenseth circa 2003, winning the event even though he hit 5 less home runs in three rounds than Josh Hamilton hit in one. Possibly the most jaw-dropping stat from Hamilton's assault on The House That Ruth Built, beyond the fact that his average distance in the first round was longer than Dan Uggla's longest bomb by 8 feet? At the time, his legendary 28-homer first round stood on its own as the second-most homers hit in a Derby, period (At least until he hit 7 more that night - and four years later, that 28 is still tied for the fifth-most home runs in a Derby). Unbelievable. Anyways, I feel confident enough in Giambi and Rodriguez to declare this a snub.

2009, Busch Stadium, St. Louis - Pujols was clear of the NL field by 8 home runs with his 32 at the break, so...yeah. This was definitely a deserving choice.

2010, Angel Stadium, Los Angeles (Angels of Anaheim - or as Neil deGrasse Tyson helpfully pointed out in a fantastic tweet the other day, The The Angels Angels of Anaheim) - Torii Hunter was tied for 15th in the AL with 15 homers. He didn't participate. Nick Swisher was tied with Hunter at 15 and did participate, finishing sixth. I like Swish and all, but I like Torii too, and both of them are on a fairly equal power footing. So all other things being equal, this was a snub.

2011, Chase Field, Arizona - As discussed above. Definitely a snub.

2012, Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City - As also discussed above. Definitely not a snub.

So what are the results of my unscientific, somewhat subjective survey? 4 snubs, 2 non-snubs, 2 deserving choices, 1 wash, and 1 thrown out. Overall, if the mandate had been in place over the past 10 years - coincidentally, the same 10 years since the ASG started "counting" - 7 of the 10 Derbies, by my reckoning, would have had legitimate hometown representatives. Of course, this does not mean the success rate of the mandate would always be 70 percent, nor that the knee-jerk reaction to put a mandate in place is supported by historical data and thus the right idea. It's simply suggesting that the results would not have been as horrific over the past 10 years as some might be inclined to think.

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