Sunday, October 9, 2011

NLCS Preview

I'll just get right to it then, seeing as the game starts in 40 minutes (from the time I'm writing this sentence).


Cardinals vs. Brewers

Offense: The Cardinals scored the most runs in the NL during the regular season - the Brewers, 5th-most. The Cardinals have the Murderers' Row of Albert Pujols/Lance Berkman/Matt Holliday, while the Brewers have the 1-2 Punch of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. The Cardinals don't have many holes in the rest of their lineup, while the Brewers are batting Jerry Hairston Jr. second today. I think I'll leave it at that.
Edge: Cardinals

Starting Pitching: The Brewers have the 3-headed monster of Zack Greinke/Yovani Gallardo/The Wildly Underrated Shaun Marcum (my new name for him), which had two pitchers turn in sub-3.55 ERAs (Gallardo and Marcum), two pitchers with over 200 Ks (Gallardo and Greinke), two pitchers with over 15 wins (Gallardo and Greinke), and two pitchers with over 200 IP (Gallardo and Marcum). So yeah, they're pretty good. Randy Wolf is a prototypical 4th starter, and that's okay. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have Chris Carpenter - who looked absolutely dominant in Game 5 against the Phillies, and gives no indication of letting up anytime soon - and, well...nothing's wrong with Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse, or Edwin Jackson. But outside of Jackson and Wolf, none of them really match up with their counterpart on the Brewers.
Edge: Brewers

Bullpen: To close out games, the Brewers trot out K-Rod as the setup man, who holds the single season record for saves, and then John Axford as the closer, who had saved 44 consecutive games before blowing Game 5 against the Dbacks and then getting the win. To close out games, the Cardinals - who as a team blew 26 saves in the regular season, second only to the Nationals - turn to any one of Mitchell Boggs/Arthur Rhodes/Marc Rzepczynski/Octavio Dotel depending on how Tony La Russa happens to be feeling at that moment in time, and then hand the ball in the 9th to Jason Motte, who posted a 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP on the season, but is new to the closer role and new to October. While the Cards' bullpen looked pretty good against the Phillies, it's hard to argue against the all-time single-season leader in saves and a guy who saved 44 straight.
*Slight Edge: Brewers

*Yes, I'm aware the breakdowns broke exactly the same way in both leagues. Whatever. That's how I see it. There is no definition of a "slight edge" other than that it's close.

Prediction: The Brewers and Cardinals played 18 times during the regular season, and split the series 9-9. So despite the Brewers' edge on paper and better record, this will probably be a very tight series. The Brewers may be the favorite, but the Cardinals just will not die.The media will focus on Pujols vs. Fielder, but I think it's going to come down to how well the rest of the lineups hit behind their respective superstars. Ryan Braun continues to hit out of his mind to win the MVP, and the Brewers take it in 7.

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