2.5 Outta 4 Ain't Bad

Well, I nailed the ALDS predictions exactly. Can't say the same about the NLDS. Correctly picked the Brewers to win, but the Dbacks took them one game further than I thought they would. And I was all kinds of wrong about the Phillies-Cardinals. But happily so - I like the Phillies, but I like the Cardinals too and was happy to see the underdog win. Bud Selig and his cronies must be simultaneously ecstatic and scared out of their minds. For as much as the final 4 teams prove all his arguments about parity...there are no East Coast teams left. The likely favorite to come out of the NL plays in the MLB's smallest market. The TV ratings from here on out, no matter the World Series matchup, might well reach historically bad levels. So as great as these matchups are in terms of competitive balance, they couldn't have turned out much worse from a business standpoint. Selig should at least be happy, however, that the Rangers managed to take care of the Rays - the Rays may be on the East Coast, but their own fans *generally* don't care about them.

Interesting note - the 4 teams left were the 4 middle playoff teams in terms of payroll. As a result, the average payroll of the remaining teams has dropped to $97.2 - which would have put them at 13th this year if they were a real team ($6 million behind the mediocre Dodgers and $5 million ahead of the Rangers). Just a nifty tidbit.

But that's enough about that. You want predictions, and I've got predictions. I'm going to break it down a little more this time.


Tigers vs. Rangers

Offense: It's a matchup of the 3rd- and 4th-best offenses in the league. The Rangers' offense was detailed in the last preview, but for those of you that didn't read it - the 1-7 hitters in their lineup are beastly. Only the Red Sox and Yankees scored more runs, and neither of them are still standing. No problem for the Rangers, right? Wrong, because the Tigers scored the 4th-most runs in the AL. Granted, they were 70 runs behind the Rangers, but the fact remains that their offense - led by Miguel Cabrera - is nothing to ignore. However, with 4 out of the possible 7 games to be played in Arlington, where the Rangers hit .296/.353/.508 on the year, that's home-field advantage you can't ignore.
Edge: Rangers

Starting Pitching: The Rangers have C.J. Wilson, who's developed into a legitimate ace. But the Tigers have Justin Verlander, who is the best pitcher in the AL and is a no-hitter threat every time he takes the hill. Oh, and he's coming off a 24-win season where he won the pitching Triple Crown. The Rangers have a solid set of starters backing Wilson up - Derek Holland, Colby Lewis, and Matt Harrison - but the Tigers starters behind Verlander - Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, and Rick Porcello - are equally as good, with no one on Texas as much of a potential for dominance as Scherzer.
Edge: Tigers

Bullpen: Neftali Feliz has been to October before, so even as a second-year player, he's used to the pressures that come in the postseason. However, he was not 49 for 49 in save chances this year. That was Papa Grande, Jose Valverde of the Tigers. The set-up guys - Mike Adams/Mike Gonzalez for the Rangers and Joaquin Benoit for the Tigers - are all fantastic.
Slight Edge: Tigers

Prediction: Despite the Tigers getting the edge in 2 of the 3 categories, the differentials aren't large enough to overcome the huge edge that the Rangers have offensively. Adrian Beltre, who is as hot as anybody swinging a bat right now, gets the MVP and it's Rangers in 6.

The NLCS preview will go up tomorrow, before Game 1.